So, I guess that happened. That being the entire 2011 season. Anyway, I just had a couple of thoughts that were too long for Twitter and decided to post them here.
1. Before the season began, I thought to myself that if everything went right this season the Dodgers could get somewhere around 86 wins and (again, all things going right) that might allow them to win the division. That meant Casey Blake contributing (ha), getting quality innings from Jon Garland (Ha), getting a lot of scoreless outings from Broxton, Kuo, and Vicente Padilla (HA!), and getting a handful of homeruns and some solid defense from Juan Uribe (HAHAHA!). Obviously, things didn't go right.
Of course, I never imagined the Diamondbacks would win 94 games, so that really blew everything away anyway.
Still, for all the injuries and question marks, the Dodgers had a great second half and still ended up winning 82 games. Even though there's no reward for finishing in 3rd place in your division, there's still some pride to be had in having a winning record for this season, especially because a few months ago, winning 70 games seemed like a barely achievable goal.
This team deserves a lot of credit for the strong finish. And that means a lot coming from me, considering how cynical and "dead inside" I've been for the last several months.
2. Speaking of credit, James Loney deserves a bunch for saving himself from what was quickly becoming a horrific season. He somehow managed himself 12 homeruns and a line of .288/.339/.416. That's not that much worse than his career numbers. 2011 actually turned out to be a very James Loney year.
Does this mean he shouldn't still be non-tendered this offseason? Yes and no. I know that's not an answer. Let me explain.
If there is money to spend for free agents this offseason, 1st base is definitely in need of an upgrade. But let's be honest, the budget will probably be conservative. Where is McCourt going to get the money to sign big checks? If that's the case, might as well keep Loney (this route might include non-tendering him and resigning him cheaper). There's not a whole lot of sense in letting Loney go and creating a hole at first base if the front office isn't going to have the money available to replace him.
(Quickly, while I'm still partially on the subject, Rod Barajas had a totally Rod Barajas year as well: 16 homeruns and a line of .230/.287/.430. Compare that to his career line of .238/.284/.414. I guess you couldn't ask for more?)
3. Dee Gordon, Jerry Sands, and Rubby De La Rosa (may his 2012 season rest in peace) have me excited for the future. Flashes of brilliance from all three.
4. Finally, Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp.
Granted, I'm biased, but these two should be Cy Young and MVP, respectively. Both races are going to be close, and both players should be really proud of themselves no matter where they finish in the race.
A lot has been said about who should win what and for what reasons, so I won't get into it too heavily. I'll just say this about Matt Kemp:
If Matt Kemp had won the Triple Crown (ignoring how unimportant the stats that make up the Triple Crown are) he'd probably be a near unanimous MVP choice. Kemp finished the season at the top of the leaderboard in both homeruns and RBIs. He finished with a .324 batting average, coming in third to Ryan Braun (.332) and Jose Reyes (.337). Kemp was 195 for 602 on the season. If Kemp had gone 203 for 602, he would have finished the season batting .33721 to Reyes' .3371 (181 for 537).
What I'm saying is this: Kemp missed out on the batting title in the Triple Crown race by eight hits. Eight. This is over a six month season. That's something like just one more hit every three weeks of the season. One bloop single here or there. A lucky hop. A squib single towards a 3rd baseman who was playing too far back. A fly ball that an outfielder loses in the sun and never gets his glove on. A line drive or ground ball that stays fair instead of just drifting foul. Eight hits over the course of a long season is so, so minimal.
Point being, if you would have voted for Kemp had he won the Triple Crown but wouldn't now that he just missed out on it, consider how very slim the margin was here. If missing just eight hits over an entire season costs Kemp the MVP award, it would be a tremendous shame.
Last thing, still related to Kemp and Kershaw.
It is such a travesty that the Dodgers have, arguably, the best young starting pitcher and the best young position player in the league and the best they can do is finish 3rd in the NL West.
These two young players are in or entering their prime and they are being surrounded by players the likes of Juan Uribe and Eugenio Velez (not that Velez cost this team their shot at the playoffs, but I think you get my point). Frank McCourt won't, or can't, spend big to improve the team, and the small amount of money he does allot, Ned Colletti wastes on poor free agent signings (Matt Guerrier is still owed $7.5 million over the next two years).
They've turned what should be something great into a mess.
I guess if I were to point a single reason why I only went to one home game this season (and the tickets were bought by someone else) it'd be that. So, there you go, McCourt. If you are wondering why attendance is down so much this year, it's you. You are the face of a group of people that have turned this great franchise into one of constant upheaval, and one, worst of all, that has begun to squander some of the best years of its brightest young players.
Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw should be the center pieces of a 100 win team heading for the playoffs. Instead, they are heading home before the start of October while McCourt still sits in court trying to get control of a team no one wants him to have.
At least, that's just my reason for attending the fewest amount of Dodger games in season since I was a little kid ... though, what am I but just another fan?
God, this got depressing. I didn't mean for it to be, but whenever I get to thinking about the number McCourt has done to this franchise, I start to go to a dark place.
Sorry.
I'm going to take a couple of deep breaths and get myself ready for the offseason.
What's this? A blog post?! Yes it is. I should point out that I've pretty much abandoned this blog and moved my Dodger opining exclusively to Twitter.
Except, that is, for when I have thoughts longer than 140 characters (not often).
Anyway, the Dodgers stand 6-4 after ten games, and I have some thoughts.
1. I'm still worried about this somewhat patchwork roster. Of the 25 men to make the roster, I'm still at unease with five of them.
Hector Gimenez had a good spring, but, frankly, he's looked overmatched more than a few times in the major leagues. He's on the DL now, with a phantom knee injury and I'm in no hurry to get him back.
Aaron Miles. I don't get the point. He's not a good hitter, not a great fielder. Jamey Carroll does everything he does and does it better. I guess with health questions hanging over the heads of both Rafael Furcal (who, as I'm writing this, it turns out has a broken thumb) and Casey Blake, you need another utility infielder around. I just wish we had better options than Miles. I'm no big fan of Ivan De Jesus, but at least he can provide the club some defensive value. And Mattingly won't be tempted to bat him leadoff or second.
Mike MacDougal and Lance Cormier. MacDougal was good at one point, but that was many moons ago. He's been ok so far in his relief appearances, giving up just a homerun over three innings of work. Cormier isn't a great option, barely squeaked onto the roster at the end of Spring Training, and has already given up four runs in four innings. I'm guessing Vicente Padilla, whenever he returns, kicks out Cormier and we just end up hoping MacDougal doesn't blow up in our faces, but that's really less than ideal.
AJ Ellis/Dioner Navarro. Ok, so this is more a technicality. Navarro wasn't really on the Opening Day roster and he's the one I have more of a problem with, but this is my blog, so deal with it. I'm not a big proponent of AJ Ellis. I like his on-base skills, but he has the power stroke of a four year old girl. Still, he seems to call a pretty decent game, and he's more than comfortable with our starting pitchers. And it's not like Dioner Navarro, who hit .258/.294/.323 in Spring Training (and .194/.270/.258 last year) is really a guaranteed offensive improvement. If Mattingly is intent on catching Rod Barajas almost every day (though in fairness to Mattingly, the way his roster was built, he has little choice), then I'm ok with Ellis as backup. Again, this is really less than ideal. It's an unfortunate by-product of the way this roster was put together.
2. If this team wants to continue to do well this season, we're going to need some players to not regress too much, and others to progress a whole lot more.
I love what Matt Kemp has done this first week and a half. He's been a man on fire. It's fantastic. But before we all freak out too much, let's not forget that Kemp, in his first 10 games last season, hit .333/.385/.756 with five homeruns, four doubles, and five walks. And we all remember how last season turned out. I'm not trying to be a downer, but I'm just reminding everyone that the .441 batting average Kemp has right not is almost certainly going to drop.
The key is making sure it doesn't drop too much.
The same goes for Tony Gwynn. He's had a pretty solid start to the season. And I really like the defense he provides in the outfield. But I have doubts we can trust him to continue hitting .333 like he has so far. However, if he can stay somewhere in the high .200s and continue with his excellent defense, I'll be ok with him taking a majority of the starts in left field.
On the flip side, Juan Uribe and James Loney are killing me. Both are hitting in the .100s (.129 and .154 respectively) and neither is drawing walks or getting extra base hits (0 BB, 1 2B for Uribe; 2 BB, 1 2B, 1 HR for Loney). These were the two guys expected to battle it out to be the third option behind Ethier and Kemp on offense. Instead, it feels like the entire offense is resting its hopes on Ethier, and more so Kemp to get anything done. The 5, 6, 7 spots in the lineup have been a black hole.
If these two can turn it on, I'll feel a lot better about our chances in 2011.
And isn't how I feel what really matters?
I'm writing this up prior to the start of today's game, so, admittedly, it's not a full week review.
Especially because the result of today's game is really going to determine whether this has been a good week or bad week.
Obviously a loss puts the Dodgers at 2-4 on the week, and that is no good.
If the Dodgers win, then they take two out of three against the Giants and go 3-3 for the week. Now, this would normally be a really average week (maybe even bad considering how close to the end of the season we are and how many games need to be made up in the standings) except for the fact that the division leading Padres have now lost ten games in a row.
So, even though the Dodgers completely botched an opportunity (probably their last) to make up ground in the Wild Card race this week, the unbelievably bad play of the Padres has reentered them into a different playoff race: the one for the NL West. As of this moment, there are only three teams and 7.5 games in front of the Dodgers and the NL West crown, versus five teams and 8.5 games blocking the Dodgers from a Wild Card berth.
And it's not like the Dodgers can't control their own destiny in the NL West race. They'll play six more games against the Padres, six more against the Rockies, and three more with the Giants (not including today). Add to that, they'll play six games against the Diamondbacks and four against the Astros. If the Dodgers were really serious about getting to the playoffs, then it's not out of the realm of possibility. The just gotta want it enough. That, and, you know, play well and win. Well, mostly that, I guess.
In all honesty, though, I'm guessing the odds of the Dodgers playing a meaningful series in October are sitting somewhere around 2% right about now. (And yes, I know they have three games at the start of October ... they're with the D-backs, and unless we're three games out at that moment, then no, those aren't meaningful.)
But whatever. I'm going to be watching these games anyway, so we might as well be winning them.
Alright, couple more things.
Broxton
So, yeah ... Broxton.
Look, I've been a big supporter of Broxton. I still am. I still believe Broxton is more likely to revert to old Broxton, rather than to assume he'll never be a good pitcher again.
But, my God is there something wrong with him. At this point, he's as unreliable as Octavio Dotel. He's hittable. He can't seem to locate his fastball unless he throws it right down the middle of the plate. Meanwhile, his slider has been hanging, and, as Juan Uribe can attest to: hanging sliders are easily smashable.
I wouldn't be surprised if something is physically wrong with him. We've seen him try to pitch through pain before, only to have it affect him. Remember when he had an issue with the big toe on his landing foot last year?
I'm guessing (hoping) an offseason to rest and Broxton will be back to form by next Spring. Until then, he should maybe sit the next couple of plays out.
John Lindsey!
In case you didn't catch it earlier this week, Ramona Shelburne wrote a nice piece on career minor leaguer John Lindsey.
Read it. It'll make you feel good about the news that Lindsey is being called up to join the team Monday after 16 years in the minors.
And like I said on Twitter a few days ago, when Ronnie Belliard got the start at first base simply because he's a right handed batter, free John Lindsey! Get him some starts every now and then. Who knows, maybe he'll knock a few out and get himself a spot on the roster for next season.
I mean, come on, we've only got like a 2% chance of making the playoffs anyway, what's the worst that could happen?
So there's been talk recently about the shortstop position and what the Dodgers should do there.
Well, first and foremost, Nomar Garciaparra deserves the chance to continue showing the Dodgers he can handle short, which I believe, if he can stay healthy, he can.
However, we do know how injury prone Nomar is. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Nomar could find his way back to the DL by the end of the season, and if he does, we don't have any real good solutions at short.
Recently, a lot of talk centered around the Dodgers trading for Jack Wilson from the Pirates. I don't hate the idea as far as Wilson the player, but from what I've heard, Wilson likes the Pirates and the Pirates like Wilson so they aren't too willing to part with him. And that means if we want him, we can't just ship them any nobody and they send us Wilson as a salary dump. We'd need to send them something of value, and I definitely don't think the Dodgers should give up any real value for Jack Wilson.
Also, yesterday, Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com noted in his game recap:
"After hearing constant rumors during the day that he was headed home to Detroit in exchange for Tigers shortstop Edgar Renteria, Lowe focused on outdueling Tim Hudson in a 2-1 win over the Braves..."
After hearing about a really bad possible trade with Cleveland that was vetoed a few days ago, now there's news of this. Again, what a ridiculous trade. How would giving up a solid part of our starting rotation for a shortstop who has not been hitting well at all this year help us? Would Renteria really help us win more games than Derek Lowe would? If we trade Derek Lowe, we are basically saying we are out of it and not looking to make the playoffs this year, and if that's the case, trade him for a good prospect, not a declining, older shortstop.
MLB.com has a section devoted to the trading block, and one specifically dedicated to middle infielders.
Here are some options I'd look at if we were to try and pick up a shortstop:
There is also David Eckstein. I like him as a player, but he's not great, and he's probably not a long term solution. However, he could be probably be gotten pretty cheaply. There is a question as to how much he has left but he might be worth a shot if it doesn't cost us much.
Cristian Guzmán is having a great season, and is still fairly young. The page says the Nationals might try to negotiate an extension with him, but if they feel they can't they might trade him. The Nationals, however, are one of those teams that enjoy building up themselves with prospects, so they might ask for a good amount from us for him.
The page also mentions Juan Uribe. I think Colletti tried getting Uribe before Berroa. He's not too bad. He's hit for power in the past, but he's got a pretty low average. He's pretty good defensively, and the page says that might be enough for the White Sox to keep him.
Also, Felipe Lopez. The page says he's making 4.9 million this year. He had one good year in 2005 and hasn't come close since, he's got ok speed. I think I'd only take him if he came really cheap.
Finally, from the page, Bill Hall. His stats have been sagging since his great year in 2006 so that might make him cheaper to come by, but I don't care for his complaining over playing time. There is also the question of if he can play ss, he hasn't since 2006, though he has been playing some infield this season. He still might cost a pretty penny, and I'm not sure if it's worth it for the Dodgers.
Now, thinking outside the box a little bit, there are two other options the page didn't mention. There is an issue however, and that is that they are both from NL West teams and there always seems to be an issue trading within the division.
In any case, the Rockies have four players who can all play in the middle infield positions: Clint Barmes, Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Stewart, and Omar Quintanilla. Quintanilla isn't too good a hitter, and the Rockies are high on Stewart and Tulowitzki, so I see Barmes as an option. He had a good year in 2005, has struggled a little since, but is making a good comeback this year, and is still young enough to be a long term solution at short for us. There is the question, though, of how much it will cost us and if we are willing to deal within the division.
Another idea from in the division might be Khalil Greene from San Diego. He's under performing this year, and many in San Diego are losing patience with him, which could make him a cheaper pickup. He's solid defensively, and can hit for some power, even in ridiculous Petco Park. The main issue is that the Padres don't have anyone to replace him. Therefore, we'd need a package that included a replacement ss for them, and we don't necessarily have that. We could offer them someone like Berroa or Maza just so they'd have someone (anyone) to play shortstop, but we'd need to give them a good prospect as the real meat of the trade, or possibly Chin-lung Hu and another prospect.
Ultimately, I want to see how well Nomar can still handle shortstop. So far, he's done well. The question is: for how long? The big dilemna comes around July 31st. If Nomar is still healthy, should we gamble and assume he can make it the rest of the season, or play it safe and add another shortstop? That's for Colletti to decide. And that worries me a little...
On the bright side, Uribe did end up the star of one of the best baseball memes of the season.
