What's this? A blog post?! Yes it is. I should point out that I've pretty much abandoned this blog and moved my Dodger opining exclusively to Twitter.
Except, that is, for when I have thoughts longer than 140 characters (not often).
Anyway, the Dodgers stand 6-4 after ten games, and I have some thoughts.
1. I'm still worried about this somewhat patchwork roster. Of the 25 men to make the roster, I'm still at unease with five of them.
Hector Gimenez had a good spring, but, frankly, he's looked overmatched more than a few times in the major leagues. He's on the DL now, with a phantom knee injury and I'm in no hurry to get him back.
Aaron Miles. I don't get the point. He's not a good hitter, not a great fielder. Jamey Carroll does everything he does and does it better. I guess with health questions hanging over the heads of both Rafael Furcal (who, as I'm writing this, it turns out has a broken thumb) and Casey Blake, you need another utility infielder around. I just wish we had better options than Miles. I'm no big fan of Ivan De Jesus, but at least he can provide the club some defensive value. And Mattingly won't be tempted to bat him leadoff or second.
Mike MacDougal and Lance Cormier. MacDougal was good at one point, but that was many moons ago. He's been ok so far in his relief appearances, giving up just a homerun over three innings of work. Cormier isn't a great option, barely squeaked onto the roster at the end of Spring Training, and has already given up four runs in four innings. I'm guessing Vicente Padilla, whenever he returns, kicks out Cormier and we just end up hoping MacDougal doesn't blow up in our faces, but that's really less than ideal.
AJ Ellis/Dioner Navarro. Ok, so this is more a technicality. Navarro wasn't really on the Opening Day roster and he's the one I have more of a problem with, but this is my blog, so deal with it. I'm not a big proponent of AJ Ellis. I like his on-base skills, but he has the power stroke of a four year old girl. Still, he seems to call a pretty decent game, and he's more than comfortable with our starting pitchers. And it's not like Dioner Navarro, who hit .258/.294/.323 in Spring Training (and .194/.270/.258 last year) is really a guaranteed offensive improvement. If Mattingly is intent on catching Rod Barajas almost every day (though in fairness to Mattingly, the way his roster was built, he has little choice), then I'm ok with Ellis as backup. Again, this is really less than ideal. It's an unfortunate by-product of the way this roster was put together.
2. If this team wants to continue to do well this season, we're going to need some players to not regress too much, and others to progress a whole lot more.
I love what Matt Kemp has done this first week and a half. He's been a man on fire. It's fantastic. But before we all freak out too much, let's not forget that Kemp, in his first 10 games last season, hit .333/.385/.756 with five homeruns, four doubles, and five walks. And we all remember how last season turned out. I'm not trying to be a downer, but I'm just reminding everyone that the .441 batting average Kemp has right not is almost certainly going to drop.
The key is making sure it doesn't drop too much.
The same goes for Tony Gwynn. He's had a pretty solid start to the season. And I really like the defense he provides in the outfield. But I have doubts we can trust him to continue hitting .333 like he has so far. However, if he can stay somewhere in the high .200s and continue with his excellent defense, I'll be ok with him taking a majority of the starts in left field.
On the flip side, Juan Uribe and James Loney are killing me. Both are hitting in the .100s (.129 and .154 respectively) and neither is drawing walks or getting extra base hits (0 BB, 1 2B for Uribe; 2 BB, 1 2B, 1 HR for Loney). These were the two guys expected to battle it out to be the third option behind Ethier and Kemp on offense. Instead, it feels like the entire offense is resting its hopes on Ethier, and more so Kemp to get anything done. The 5, 6, 7 spots in the lineup have been a black hole.
If these two can turn it on, I'll feel a lot better about our chances in 2011.
And isn't how I feel what really matters?
So, I was at the game last night. What? Don't believe me? I'm not sure why you wouldn't. But that's ok. I have proof!
I got on television!
See me? No?
How about now? I'm the pixel blob on the right. The other two pixel blobs are my mom and grandpa. I think...
By the way, I know it's been said many times before, but Dodger Stadium is really one of the best baseball parks in the world.
Seriously.
But, I digress. While at the game, some interesting stuff went down. And we should talk about it...
Ronnie Belliard! Nice homerun!
Oh... and we traded for Jim Thome and Jon Garland. Ok, I guess if we have to talk about this, let's talk about it.
We got Thome for virtually nothing. An older low-A prospect who wasn't hitting too well, which is great.
And Thome certainly fills a void for us. He'll provide an excellent pinch hitting option off the bench, and looking into the all-to-distant future, a DH in an American League ballpark.
My only gripe with the Thome trade (and it is very minor) is just a question of how much we can actually use him. Thome himself told Ned Colletti that he can't really play first base anymore (though during the phone call he personally placed to Colletti, he did say that he was perfectly happy riding the bench and pinch hitting which, to me, shows good character from a guy I already liked). So, Thome will primarily be used as a pinch hitter. Maybe he'll get a start once or twice (if there are no lefties in the lineup to hit it at him) but ultimately, we're kinda just looking at something like 30-40 at-bats for Thome, and the possibility that somewhere down the line we use him at DH anywhere from 2-4 games. It's not too much. That's the danger with acquiring anyone this late in the year.
However, (and remember, I warned you this was just a small gripe) when looking at what we gave up for him, if Thome can affect a game or two with even just a couple of those at-bats, then he's given us value.
And now, we turn to the Jon Garland trade. At first, admittedly, a bit of a head-scratcher. Geez... I don't like that term at all. Conundrum is too extreme though. I'll have to work on this.
But, again, I digress.
Garland was acquired for a PTBNL. Now, before we discuss Garland's value, the PTBNL needs to be addressed.
So far, the only name being branded about is Tony Abreu, which would be unfortunate. Yes, Tony Abreu is probably too much for Garland, though there are certainly enough options for the positions that Abreu plays (third and shortstop are shored up for the next several years, and resigning Orlando Hudson, Ivan DeJesus Jr., and Blake DeWitt are all options at 2nd next year, not to mention Chin-lung Hu, who has recently had a resurgence in AAA). But. But... Tony Abreu's name is only being brought up in the most flimsy of manners. The D-backs beat writer said on his Twitter account that Dodger players were saying that Abreu was the PTBNL. Now, obviously, I don't know anything about a professional clubhouse, but I was under the assumption that the players weren't making the trades.
In any case, we'll see. Again, Abreu for Garland is probably too much, but even if it is Abreu, I'm not going to be too broken up over it.
Now, for Garland's worth. Like Thome, Garland probably won't be able to contribute too much this season. He'll most likely make 5-6 starts, though some of his value might come if his arrival makes Joe Torre comfortable enough to go with a six-man rotation. If Garland's arrival allows Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley (or both) to skip a start or two while still providing quality pitching in their place, he'll have provided value.
The next question comes if (when?) we make the playoffs. Garland might or might not be the 4th starter. He'll probably battle it out with Kuroda for that spot, though I wouldn't mind giving it to Garland, given his prior playoff and World Series experience (2 excellent starts: 9 IP, 2 ER and 7 IP, 2 ER). Not to say Kuroda's two starts last year weren't quality, they just weren't as good. Either way, I'd be comfortable with both pitchers on the mound.
Looking at the big picture, I'm happy with both trades. Yes, the PTBNL in the Garland trade might dampen my happiness a bit, but I think I'll still take it.
Overall, pretty good, and kind of exciting to have so much happen on one night...
I mean, Ronnie Belliard hit a homerun in his first at-bat with the Dodgers.
How cool is that?
Player: Chin-lung Hu
2008 Stats: .181, nine RBIs, 23 Ks
2008 Analysis: Chin-lung Hu had a tough time at the plate. Well, that might be an understatement. Hu was getting buried at the plate. His at-bats looked bad. He was wailing away, hardly making contact, or not even doing that. There's been talk that he's had eye issues, and he did apparently adjust his contacts (or something like that) before going back to AAA, where he suddenly began to hit again. I think he has it within himself to be a good hitter, he just needs to hit. Easy enough, right?
Defensively, Hu was excellent. Only one error in 165 total chances between playing time at 2nd and shortstop (no errors in 121 total chances at short). But defense has always been Hu's strong point.
2009 Outlook: Hu is going to turn 25 before the season starts, so it's hard to say this is Hu's last shot, but if Hu can't crack it at Spring Training this year... well... Ivan De Jesus is approaching quickly. I'm willing to give Hu the benefit of the doubt though. I want to give him Spring Training to prove he can see well enough to hit decently, and if he can, I'd be willing to give him either of the middle infield positions to start the season (depending of course, on what the situation is there at the time). Hu is just a year removed from being the Dodger Minor League Player of the Year, so he does deserve another shot, but not too many more...
Ok, back to player profiles, continuing at shortstop where we left off.
Player: Rafael Furcal
2008 Stats: .357, five homeruns, 16 RBIs, eight stolen bases, .439 OBP, .573 Slugging
2008 Analysis: What an interesting year Rafael Furcal had. He played in only 36 games this year, his lowest ever since he came up to the majors in 2000. In those 36 games, however, he really made it count. By comparison, Furcal had about 80 less at-bats than Ángel Berroa and really demolished any and all of Berroa's stats.
For the first month and change, Furcal was, dare I say, looking like an MVP candidate. He was on fire! Then he was scratched from a few starts for some discomfort in his back. And then he needed a 15-day DL trip. Then that DL trip lasted over a month. Furcal tried to come back and made it through a couple AAA rehab games before feeling the discomfort again. Then he had back surgery. And yeah...
Furcal came back from back surgery late in the season and started all eight Dodger playoff games. He went .258, with a .378 OBP, and scored nine runs. It was a not-bad post-season, though Furcal did commit some very badly timed errors at shortstop that led to some losses. I'd chalk that up to coming back too soon from heavy surgery on his back, and I can really fault a guy for trying to help his team.
2009 Outlook: Furcal is currently a free agent and is getting a lot of interest from various teams. Personally, I'd like to see the Dodgers try and get Furcal back. I originally hoped to give him a short deal with incentives, but it looks now like despite the fact he had some injury questions, some team is going to give Furcal a good deal.
That being the case, even though he might be an injury question mark, I still want Furcal back. When healthy, he's probably in the Top 5 of all current lead-off hitters. He can hit for average, he's got some power, he can field, he can still steal bases. He's the spark plug for the lineup, and if we can be assured he healthy, I say give him whatever he wants, but maybe have Chin-lung Hu or Ivan De Jesus waiting in the wings...
The Dodgers get good pitching and good hitting salvage the last game of the series and go into the All-Star break on a high note.
Chad Billingsley got the win, he's 9-8. Andrew Miller lost, he's 5-9.
Chad Billingsley had an excellent start, going seven innings, giving up only one run on five hits, while striking out a career high 13. 
Also, a really good sign for Billingsley: no walks. He had his command today. Joe Beimel and Cory Wade pitched a scoreless inning each to keep the Marlins in check.
The Dodger offense, while only scoring eight runs in the first three games of this series, managed to plate nine runs today, including six in the 1st inning. Except for the pitcher's spot, everyone in the starting lineup managed to score a run, and six of the nine had RBIs in the game. Matt Kemp had an especially good game, going 3-4 with a double, two stolen bases, and two RBIs. Nomar Garciaparra went 2-3 with two RBIs as well.
With the win today, the Dodgers took four of seven in the season series against the Marlins. They also moved within a game back of the Diamondbacks for first. They'll face the Diamondbacks in the next series starting Friday.
Also: Dodger shortstop prospect Ivan De Jesus went 2-3 with a walk in the All-Star Futures game in New York.
