Saturday, July 26, 2008

Casey Blake Traded From Cleveland

With less than a week away from the trade deadline, the Dodgers acquired veteran 3rd baseman Casey Blake from the Cleveland Indians for minor leaguers Jon Meloan and Carlos Santana.

There are some positives and negatives to this trade:

First, if the Dodgers were looking for a big bat (a homerun hitter the likes of Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, or Jason Bay), Blake won't be it. Blake did have 28 homeruns in 2004, but has seen his power numbers decline each year since.

Blake, however, does come cheaply enough (more on that below)
and will probably fit in nicely with the current line-up. His 11 homeruns this year are tied for the team lead (with Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp), his 58 RBIs put him in the lead, one more than James Loney, and his .289 average puts him in 4th place on the team in between Matt Kemp (.290) and Andre Ethier (.277).

As for what the Dodgers gave up for Blake, it's not too bad. Jon Meloan had some promise, but his role was unsure with the Dodgers. He started as a reliever, and had some success, but was recently converted to a starter and struggled in Triple-A. He might ultimately find success in Cleveland, but the Dodgers have enough quality pitchers that they can afford to see Meloan go. Carlos Santana was an intriguing player. He is a switch hitting catcher in Single-A who was batting .323 with 14 homeruns and 96 RBIs and is, supposedly, pretty good defensively with a strong arm. He might someday be a very good catcher, but the Dodgers currently have a very good catcher (an All-Star to be exact) in Russell Martin. They also have Lucas May, a 23-year old catching prospect playing in Double-A right now. He's a pretty good hitter, and a year closer to the major leagues than Santana was, so Santana became expendable. It is possible that in a few years, Santana could still be as good a player? Yes, but you never know how a prospect will perform in the future, and his value might never have been higher than it was now. How Santana evolves might be the biggest indicator of the success of this trade. That will definitely be something to keep an eye on.

And while Blake isn't the impact bat the Dodgers probably need to go deep into the playoffs, in the weak NL West, Blake might be enough to at least get the Dodgers into the playoffs. Ultimately, though, Blake is a rent-a-player. He will be a free agent at the end of the season, and the Dodgers won't probably make too much effort to resign him.

And that is why I'm also a little worried. Trading for Blake is a move for this season, not for the future, and there has been talk now, that since the Dodgers have Blake, Andy LaRoche might be next to be traded. This would be a big mistake in my opinion. LaRoche, I believe, is our 3rd baseman of the future. Given that Blake is 35, and will most likely move on at the end of the season, he's obviously not a long term solution at 3rd, and if LaRoche is traded, the future of 3rd base becomes a big question mar
k again. LaRoche has not really been able to get his bat going this year due to injuries and inconsistent playing time, but I feel that given the 3rd base job, he will perform. Also, by many scout's projections, LaRoche is believed to have the best power of any of the current Dodger young players (Loney, Kemp, Martin, etc.). LaRoche will be valuable to us in the future. I feel the best plan would be to send Blake DeWitt down to Triple-A and have him play 2nd base. I feel that is where DeWitt's future is, considing his projection to hit for high average, but low power, plus his good range makes him an ideal candidate for 2nd. He can take that spot over after Jeff Kent most likely retires at the end of this year. As for now, he needs to learn better to adjust to pitching, as his batting average has significantly dropped since the end of May. For now, allow LaRoche to stay with the team, play backup to Blake, play a little 2nd on Kent's off-days, and even give Loney a day off or two at 1st. LaRoche has nothing left to prove at Triple-A, but he still has a lot more to show at the major league level, he just needs to be given the chance.

Currently, the move to acquire Casey Blake seems to be a positive one. Two prospects were lost but the question now is what corresponding moves to the trade will be. I just hope moves aren't made (in desperation) to try and win in the present that will end up hurting us in the future.

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