I wasn't even in offseason mode yet, and look at the Dodgers, jumping in with a splash. (Small splash? Medium sized splash.)
The Dodgers re-upped with Ted Lilly, signing him to a three year deal. This news is a little bit bittersweet for me. Will Ted Lilly be good next year (definition of good being 25+ starts, about 4.00 ERA)? Yeah, probably.
But this deal immediately makes me thing of the Casey Blake deal: three years for a guy in his mid-30s who is beginning to show signs of decline. Sure, we got a decent offensive year out of Blake in 2009 (122 OPS+), but by the second year in the deal (2010, 99 OPS+), we were already starting to regret it. The third year (if Mattingly is smart) will have us paying Casey Blake $5.25 million to be a platoon(/bench?) player.
Which brings me back to Lilly. Obviously, there's no guarantee that Lilly will take the Casey Blake route of decline but it wouldn't shock me. Weird, but trends seem to show that players get worse, not better as they age.
I'm won't be surprised if we're regretting this deal by half-way through the second year.
We also don't know the monetary details of the contract yet. Ted Lilly was going to be one of the top pitchers on the free agent market this offseason. I'm worried about what the Dodgers offered him to not go into said market.
If it's too expensive, we might be looking at a guy who (in an ideal baseball world) is a 4th starter as our big free agent signing this offseason.
Still, our entire starting rotation at this point was comprised of Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, so being able to pencil in Ted Lilly for somewhere around 30 starts and 180-200 innings of about 4.00 ERA pitching is still a plus.
Just as long as you remember that pluses come in many sizes.
UPDATE: Lilly gets 3 years and $33 million. It's a lot, or, at least, more than I'd hoped. There's a couple ways to look at this. I'm sure on the open market, Lilly gets more than that (though I'm not sure too much more, I'm thinking maybe $12 million) so the Dodgers, in a way, got Lilly for cheap.
On the other hand, flash forward to a couple years from now, when Ted Lilly is still getting paid $11 million and possibly not producing as much. Suddenly, things aren't looking so cheap anymore.
Anyway, point is, next year we'll have Lilly in our rotation and be paying him $11 million. It's more than I hoped, but still better than I expected.
... so it's a plus.
Again, size of said plus to be determined.
Great week for the Dodgers to go on a winning streak. 5-1. Seriously Dodgers?
Dodgers finish the season 80-82, tied with Florida and the Angels. They'll have either the 12th, 13th, or 14th pick in the draft next year.
Eh. Whatever.
Honestly, I'm just glad this is all over. It's been a long, mostly painful season.
I honestly don't have much to add. Bring on the offseason already, even though I'm pretty sure this offseason is going to be just as painful as this actual season was.
I'll probably start working on the offseason awards soon, but for now I'm tired.
Sigh.
We're almost there. This long, winding death-march to mediocrity ends in a week.
I'm in a weird place with the Dodgers right now. I'll be honest, I haven't really been watching many games these past few weeks, at least not actively. I'll have the game on in the background with the sound down while I do other stuff or I'll check the score every now and then, but I can't seem to just sit down and watch them.
It's probably because I don't want the Dodgers to win. I'll explain. Being a fan, thinking with my heart, I couldn't really ever say "I want the Dodgers to lose." But, thinking about it logically, the best thing for the team is for them to do badly this last week.
I'm looking at it like this: coming into today, the Dodgers were in the middle of a pack of teams with similar records. You have the Milwaukee Brewers on one end, who at 73-82 would pick 9th in the Draft next year. On the other end, you have the Oakland A's, who at 77-77 would pick 15th in the Draft. The Dodgers, coming into Sunday at 75-80, would pick 11th.
Here's where I start to have a problem. What good, at all, does it to for the team to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks in the four games, including today, that we play against them? It's not as if we receive some kind of prize for finishing the season at .500 or finishing above a handful of other teams.
In fact, it's detrimental to us.
Some people might talk about playing for pride or something similar. I reject that notion. How much pride can someone really get from winning a meaningless game against a team like the Diamondbacks? They've been dead in the water since June. Really, Andre Ethier is going to go home this offseason, think back to the disappointment of this season, but cheer up when he remembers win #76 against the hapless D-backs?
Look, I'm not saying we should tank. I don't like the idea of intentionally losing.
What I'm saying is, I haven't been able to watch games the last couple weeks because, in a way, I'm rooting against the Dodgers. I'm sitting there thinking something like: I want a well pitched game that the Dodgers lose 2-1 because Reed Johnson loses a ball in the lights. Or let George Sherrill pitch more and see what happens. Do well, but not well enough to actually win these last 7 games.
The great equalizer.
So... that's where I'm at. There's not a whole lot else to add about this week because it was really just another blah week in a lost season.
I did realize one thing, though. If you are a Pirates fan and you run a real quality blog about them, I give you all the credit in the world.
The Pirates lost their 100th game this week. They've been a losing team longer than the internet has been around (the popular version that we know today). At the very least, the Pirates being a bad team predates the idea of blogs, for sure.
So, again, credit to Pirates bloggers. It's hard to be a fan of team and watch as they continuously lose, even more so to try and write interesting things about that team on a consistent basis.
I mean, this is the first time since I've started this blog that the Dodgers have had a losing season, and look, I'm spending my week recaps saying things like: "Yeah! I'm glad we're losing!"
Anyway, one more week of this nonsense and then we hop into what will probably be a long, and most likely painfully inactive offseason.
I can't wait.
So, apparently, A.J. Ellis, somehow, became an amazing hitter...
Yeah, I didn't see it coming either. Coming into Sunday, he was six for his last seven with a couple doubles and a walk.
That's why Joe Torre used him to pinch hit in the 11th inning of today's game with the bases loaded. And Ellis came through with his second walk-off hit of the season.
A nice way to salvage a week that was pretty bad. Even with the comeback win, the Dodgers still lost both series this week, and went 2-4 overall.
Ultimately, it doesn't matter, unless you're trying to figure out where the Dodgers will pick in next year's draft. (With the win today, they'd pick 11th, in case you were wondering...)
Anyway, there's not a whole lot else worth talking about this week, as far as on the field play goes.
Off the field, though...
Under New Management
So, obviously, the big news this week came when Joe Torre announced his retirement (from the Dodgers, at least) and named Don Mattingly his successor.
As I said on Twitter at the time, I'm wasn't surprised. Just disappointed.
Not that I don't think Mattingly could be a good major league manager. In all honesty, I have no idea. People are worried that because he learned under Joe Torre, he'll make many of the same mistakes as Joe. And while I'm sure he will make mistakes, I'm at least willing to give him a shot before I dismiss him.
The biggest issue I have is the lack of exploring other alternatives. They didn't interview any other candidates for the job, not Tim Wallach (who admittedly might not be a better manager, again, I have no idea), nor anyone else. They just handed the job straight to Mattingly. I guess, ultimately, going in another direction wasn't really an option as Dylan Hernandez reported that Mattingly signed a deal this offseason guaranteeing him the manager's job if Torre stepped down. It seems like a pretty low reward/high risk deal. Worst case: the Dodgers get stuck with a guy who can't manage a major league team or control a clubhouse. Best case: the Dodgers secure a guy who has never managed a team. I mean, what's the worst that could happen? Mattingly gets a better job offer from another team, and then what? We end up with Tim Wallach coaching? Just ... odd decisions coming from the front office.
Including those of the facial hair variety ... your soul patch is off center! Dammit!
Anyway, the key for me is who Mattingly gets to fill his staff. I get the feeling that if he keeps Bob Schaefer and Larry Bowa around, it's going to be a lot of the same old.
If he brings in some new guys, some people that take a different approach with the players and team, I have hope that he can learn and be a different kind of manager.
I guess we'll see, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a bit worried.
Smart Trades
I know I've been saying for a while we should've sold, so you'd think I'd be happy to see Octavio Dotel shipped off to the Rockies for a Player To Be Named Later. And, believe me, I am.
But I can't move past how horrid the original trade to bring Dotel here was in the first place.
If you want to do the math, the first trade was James McDonald and Andrew Lambo for Octavio Dotel. Dotel pitched 18.2 innings for the Dodgers (3.38 ERA) and then was swapped for cash and a PTBNL.
So, the final trade looks something like this: McDonald + Lambo = 18.2 IP of Dotel + PTBNL ... which looks absolutely terrible as it stands, until you realize that on the day Dotel was sent to the Rockies, McDonald had his streak of 20 straight scoreless innings finally snapped. Just solid work from the front office.
Totally worth it!
Yeah. If that trade was not the worst of Colletti's career, it has got to be top three, right? (Santana for Blake? Bell for Sherrill? At least both Blake and Sherrill contributed at some point to a playoff race. Dotel did nothing but cost us young players and money to pitch mediocre in a handful of meaningless games.)
Another Take On Manny
Just one last thing, apropos of nothing really.
I was listening to a podcast with comedian/character actor Larry Miller and he started talking about Manny Ramirez and baseball in general.
The whole episode is about 35 minutes and it's all about baseball memories if you have the time to listen to the whole thing, but if you want to jump to the Manny part, it's about 30 minutes in. If you have a little more time, I'd recommend starting at 24 minutes. Larry tells a pretty cool story that kind of leads into the Manny discussion.
Essentially, Larry says that despite the fact it got a little ugly at the end, Manny did something pretty great for this city in 2008.
And he's right. I will always be appreciative of Manny for what he did in those last few months in 2008 and hearing the way Larry Miller talked about it was pretty cool.
Anyway, you can find the podcast here, if you are interested.
... and, uh, I don't really have an interesting way to end this article and I'm tired so ... see you next week?
Last week, in the recap, which I wrote before the game that day, I made some mention of the fact that if the Dodgers were really serious about trying to make the playoffs, it was really all in their hands. (In fairness to me, I did say there was only about a 2% chance of any of this happening.)
Anyway, that blog post was written before the Dodgers decided to roll over and die this week.
First, they lost the rubber match Sunday and the series as a whole to the Giants.
Then, and this is the really fun one: they went into San Diego to face a reeling, dying Padres team. A team that had lost ten straight games. And what happened? The Dodgers got swept by the Padres. Swept. They couldn't eke out one win in three? They couldn't, I dunno, continue the Padres anti-momentum and win the first game before dropping the next two? Nope. Guess not.
Oh, and then to finish it off, the Dodgers rode their losing streak to six games by losing the first game of four in Houston.
They did win the next two games, but it was too little, too late.
Put it like this. Coming into this week, the season's heart monitor was going "Beep ... beep ... beep ..." It was faint, but it was still alive. After the Padres series, it was more like "Beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep..." And any win at this point is like the doctor who won't give up trying to hit the dead patient with more volts. "Clear!" Zap. "Clear!" Zap. The nurse comes running in. "Doctor! Stop it! Stop it! He's dead!"
Dramatic, I know. But inaccurate? I think not.
The Dodgers losing the fourth game of the series with the Astros, thus splitting the set, was like rigor mortis setting in.
Anyway, couple more things.
Good Decisions
Quickly want to make this point (again): how great is it that Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda, Scott Podsednik, etc. are still on this team? Podsednik didn't even play in the last three games of the Astros series.
Pictured: A meaningful start.
This could be fun.
Actual Good Decisions
This was something I was going to promote this week because, frankly, I didn't expect that this would actually happen.
I was going to say that, with the season dead, you have got to play the call-ups and see what you got.
And what happens this series against the Astros? John Ely gets back into the rotation to see if he can make a few quality big league starts. Russ Mitchell gets some starts. Jay Gibbons gets some starts. Trent Oeltjen and John Lindsey get some starts (and Lindsey gets his first career hit in the majors, which, by the way, is one of the few good things to happen for this team in the last several weeks).
Credit to Joe Torre for being smart and playing these guys instead of just running the regulars out there day after day. It's not like it hasn't been rewarding. Ely went 6.0 innings on Saturday giving up just three runs. Plus, it turns out Mitchell can't do much but fly out and Gibbons still has some power. Also, he's horrible defensively. See? We're learning.
Pictured: the Dodgers' 2011 4th outfielder
Anyway, I'd like to keep it up. I want to see more of these guys and start building toward next year. And if we lose, we lose. I'm not suggesting tanking for a better draft slot next year, but if we keep starting whoever and just let nature take its course, then I'm not going to complain.
I'm writing this up prior to the start of today's game, so, admittedly, it's not a full week review.
Especially because the result of today's game is really going to determine whether this has been a good week or bad week.
Obviously a loss puts the Dodgers at 2-4 on the week, and that is no good.
If the Dodgers win, then they take two out of three against the Giants and go 3-3 for the week. Now, this would normally be a really average week (maybe even bad considering how close to the end of the season we are and how many games need to be made up in the standings) except for the fact that the division leading Padres have now lost ten games in a row.
So, even though the Dodgers completely botched an opportunity (probably their last) to make up ground in the Wild Card race this week, the unbelievably bad play of the Padres has reentered them into a different playoff race: the one for the NL West. As of this moment, there are only three teams and 7.5 games in front of the Dodgers and the NL West crown, versus five teams and 8.5 games blocking the Dodgers from a Wild Card berth.
And it's not like the Dodgers can't control their own destiny in the NL West race. They'll play six more games against the Padres, six more against the Rockies, and three more with the Giants (not including today). Add to that, they'll play six games against the Diamondbacks and four against the Astros. If the Dodgers were really serious about getting to the playoffs, then it's not out of the realm of possibility. The just gotta want it enough. That, and, you know, play well and win. Well, mostly that, I guess.
In all honesty, though, I'm guessing the odds of the Dodgers playing a meaningful series in October are sitting somewhere around 2% right about now. (And yes, I know they have three games at the start of October ... they're with the D-backs, and unless we're three games out at that moment, then no, those aren't meaningful.)
But whatever. I'm going to be watching these games anyway, so we might as well be winning them.
Alright, couple more things.
Broxton
So, yeah ... Broxton.
Look, I've been a big supporter of Broxton. I still am. I still believe Broxton is more likely to revert to old Broxton, rather than to assume he'll never be a good pitcher again.
But, my God is there something wrong with him. At this point, he's as unreliable as Octavio Dotel. He's hittable. He can't seem to locate his fastball unless he throws it right down the middle of the plate. Meanwhile, his slider has been hanging, and, as Juan Uribe can attest to: hanging sliders are easily smashable.
I wouldn't be surprised if something is physically wrong with him. We've seen him try to pitch through pain before, only to have it affect him. Remember when he had an issue with the big toe on his landing foot last year?
I'm guessing (hoping) an offseason to rest and Broxton will be back to form by next Spring. Until then, he should maybe sit the next couple of plays out.
John Lindsey!
In case you didn't catch it earlier this week, Ramona Shelburne wrote a nice piece on career minor leaguer John Lindsey.
Read it. It'll make you feel good about the news that Lindsey is being called up to join the team Monday after 16 years in the minors.
And like I said on Twitter a few days ago, when Ronnie Belliard got the start at first base simply because he's a right handed batter, free John Lindsey! Get him some starts every now and then. Who knows, maybe he'll knock a few out and get himself a spot on the roster for next season.
I mean, come on, we've only got like a 2% chance of making the playoffs anyway, what's the worst that could happen?
I just wanted to whip this graphic up real quick, because it was made official that the Dodgers just let Manny go to the White Sox on a pure waiver claim.
The black lines indicate either of the two possible actions the Dodgers should have taken with Manny this weekend. Obviously, there's risk and reward for either path, as designated by red circles (for negative outcomes) and green circles (for positive ones).
The blue line indicates what actually happened this weekend.
As you can see: the best of both worlds, really.
Look, I understand the player the Dodgers were likely to get back wasn't going to be a top prospect. At this point though, I just wanted something tangible for Manny.
Sure, the $4 million or so in salary relief is nice, in theory... assuming, of course, the money goes back into the team. But, at this point, with these owners (who currently sit in a Los Angeles courtroom arguing over money and control of this team), then who really knows?
There are a couple things I do know, though.
First, and foremost, there is no reason for Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Octavio Dotel, George Sherrill, Scott Podsednik, and maybe even Casey Blake to remain on this team. There may be other players that I am forgetting, but these six strike me as the most important ones. (Looking at the roster, I think the guy I'm missing is Vicente Padilla, who can't be moved while on the DL, which is really a shame because his stock was so high earlier this season.)
With Manny gone, whether the front office wants to believe it or not, they've thrown in the towel on this season. As such, there's no reason to continue paying veterans with expiring contracts to help this team to a 4th place, .500 finish. Sell. Sell them all. Get whatever you can. But as the final, final trade deadline approaches tomorrow, none of these six players (five if you don't include Blake who has another year on his contract) should be on the roster.
Here's the second thing I know.
Joe Torre, the manager everyone in the media seems to adore for his ability to win, was managing a .500 team to a 2nd place finish in 2008. That was before Manny came along. Suddenly, the Dodgers start winning. Then, the Dodgers make the playoffs. And then, for the first time in 20 years, the Dodgers win a playoff series.
Now, it's 2010. Joe Torre is still here. There's that constant. Manny isn't. He mostly wasn't. (Though when he was, the Dodgers were 10 games over .500.) It's starting to look like crazy speak to even consider contending for the playoffs at this point.
So, you tell me who is really more important to this team.
Here's the third thing I know.
Ignoring the first five games of a season (when numbers like batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging can fluctuate like crazy due to the low amount of at-bats), Manny has never, not once, had his OPS dip below .800 in his tenure with the Dodgers.
For all the drama about steroids, and injuries, and lack of hustle or heart or whatever similar crap, Manny produced.
For all the hate that Manny received from main stream media (see Bill Plaschke, amongst many others), who turned and praised gritty guys like Juan Pierre, steroids or not, Manny always out-hit them.
Look, I'll admit it. When we acquired Manny, I was not thrilled. One, because we gave up Andy LaRoche (who I still like, despite the fact his career is slowly dying in Pittsburgh). And two, I was real worried he might give up on us (this mind you, in the same season Andruw Jones already had).
Well, now that the Manny era is over, I can say this: He never gave up.
The trade was definitely worth it. Resigning him was absolutely worth it. He made mistakes, sure. He was injured, sure. But up until the very last pitch of his very last at-bat, Manny never gave up on the team or the fans.
He showed up. And he produced.
