One, it was a half week. Two, it was a terrible half week. Three, a big topic I was going to discuss was Broxton anyway, so this post makes the Retrospective moot.
Jumping right into it, let's recap: Broxton blew a game yesterday. In turn, the Dodger fanbase reacted in a calm demeanor, showing their full support for a good young player.
Oh wait. (Credit, obviously, to Memories of Kevin Malone)
Ok, so, Dodger fans freaked out. And I can't blame fans for being angry. The Dodgers were trying to avoid a four game sweep while San Diego continues to win and separate themselves from the pack. This was a tough game to lose.
But here's where we begin to have a problem.
We need to be able to distinguish between being upset and misinformed complaining.
Be mad that we lost the game. Again, tough game to lose. Be upset with Broxton for the game. He was wild and ineffective. It happens and you are allowed to be upset about it.
That's fine. But. But...
Don't start spewing nonsense about replacing Broxton. Stop it. Seriously. You look foolish because really, it's nonsense.
In some form or another, here's what always seems to happen whenever I have a discussion in which I end up defending Broxton against a detractor.
Person: "Broxton sucks."
Me: "Broxton is one of the better closers in the game."
Person: "Broxton blows too many big games."
Me: "Everyone blows games. Everyone gives up runs, that's why there's such thing as ERA."
Person: "I don't like Broxton. He's not a major league closer."
And here's where misinformed complainers always get caught:
Me: "Ok, who would you replace him with?"
Now, the person is always caught with this question because there is no good answer to this question.
I mean, that doesn't stop the other person from going: "I don't know!" or "It's not my job, I don't get paid to figure that stuff out!" which are both versions of "There is no good answer to that question!"
But, ok, fine, you haven't had the time to research and make the calls into other GMs, so you don't have a list of candidates. If you want to play this game though, misinformed complainers, you should know this: all but one pitcher in baseball with 10 or more save opportunities this year has blown a game.
(Long tangent: the one pitcher is John Axford of the Milwaukee Brewers ... don't you dare pretend to tell me you know who that is. Axford is 11 for 11 in save opportunities, but then you should probably also know this: because of the flawed way saves are kept, Axford's 11 for 11 doesn't explain the fact that in five of those opportunities, Axford surrendered an earned run. He's been lucky enough to have his leads be larger than one run at the time and avoid the blown save. Oh, and by the way, Axford has given up the go ahead run while the game was tied on three separate occasions this year, so by no means is Axford the perfect closer.)
Point is, there isn't going to be a pitcher you can replace Broxton with who will satisfy you. Even the great Mariano Rivera, who I will happily admit is a superior pitcher to Broxton has blown two games this year.
These calls for Broxton's head are misinformed. You people are hoping that Ned Colletti will magically pull a pitcher out of his hat that throws a 102 fastball, a 93 slider, and a 79 curveball that drops a foot off the table at the last second. This pitcher has a 0.00 ERA, never blows a save, and can pitch 3 out of 4 days or not for a week but will remain sharp either way. That's a great thing to hope for, but this pitcher only exists in MLB 2k10 (and I know this because he's the closer on my Create-A-Team).
Here's where I'm guessing this problem stems from:
1. Unrealistic expectations.
Since Eric Gagne took over closing duties in 2002, Dodger fans haven't really know what it's like to not have a lights out closer. He dominated from 2002-2004 unlike any closer in history, at one point saving an unbelievable 84 games in 84 save opportunities. The whole "Game Over" era not only gave regular fans an unrealistic expectation of what to expect from a closer, but I suspect it brought on board many casual fans as well, who at that point only had "Game Over" Gagne as their image of what a closer should be.
2005 was a transitional year. Gagne was injured and Yhency Brazoban ended up leading the team in saves with 21, while holding down a 5.33 ERA. It was easy enough to dismiss the year as a throw away year.
But then 2006 comes around. Takashi Saito comes out of the blue to become one of the top closers in baseball over the next two seasons.
Broxton shares closer's duties with Saito in 2008, before fully taking over the job in 2009.
Now, what I'm suggesting is, from 2002-2007, with the exception of 2005, the Dodgers have had an extraordinary run of lights out closers. And, worse for Broxton, from two different closers.
Many Dodgers fans have come to expect that you can just replace one lights out closer with another like it's something that's easy to do, or that's been happening forever, for that matter. Gagne was here, he was great, he went away and got replaced with Saito, who was also great. Saito is gone, and has been replaced with Broxton. Why is Broxton not as great as Gagne was from 02-04 or Saito from 06-07?
We were supremely lucky to have such high quality closers for several years. That's not to say Broxton isn't high quality, but he will never convert 84 straight save opportunities in a row (I doubt anyone ever will), nor will Broxton probably ever post a 1.40 ERA (with a 0.72 WHIP) over an entire season like Saito did in 2007. Broxton might be able to have a similar season, but is not likely to have these types of numbers over the span of several seasons. It's not that seasons like that are unheard of, but to expect them from the same pitcher every year is ludicrous unless that pitcher is Mariano Rivera (a Hall of Famer).
The other part of this blame Broxton problem is this:
2. Emotionally charged losses
The blown game is probably the hardest game to lose other than maybe having Ken Griffey Jr. rob the game winning homerun in the 12th inning during the last game of the season, knocking you out of the playoffs ala "Little Big League". But, I digress.
Blown save losses are the most emotionally charged losses because you go from happiness to anger in the span of an inning.
If the starting pitcher gives up three runs in the 2nd inning, and those three runs turn out to be the difference in the game, there isn't much uproar. If the closer does it in the 9th, the fans have no time to think, they just blow a gasket.
Everyone remembers that Broxton blew the big game in the NLCS last year. No one seems to remember the save he converted in the 2-1 victory in that same series.
Conversely, everyone remembers that Vicente Padilla had an amazing start against the Phillies in the NLCS (that same 2-1 game, coincidentally) but no one seems to remember that when the Dodgers needed him to show up to avoid elimination in Game 5, he gave up 6 runs in three innings.
This isn't meant to bag on Padilla, who I must admit has been excellent since returning from the DL and deserves some acknowledgment from this blog at some point in the near future. No, this is simply meant to point out that people have a completely unbalanced, much more severe reaction to a later inning loss than a game lost in the first few innings.
So, what's the solution?
Here it is, for all of you misinformed complainers out there.
1. First, realize that Broxton is not as bad as you believe him to be. If I can't interest you in looking up his sabermetric stats like his xFIP, at least just know this: Broxton has made his way into 40 games this season and has only really negatively affected two (maybe a few others but if we are only considering games in which Broxton's actions have led to a direct loss, then two).
2. Realize there are not a lot of better options than Broxton this year, and that most of those better options are on teams that won't be giving them up anytime soon. You think the Pittsburgh Pirates or the Baltimore Orioles have the solution to your problem? Because they don't. Maybe the Yankees do, maybe the Braves do, but guess what? They are leading their divisions. They have no reason at all to send their closer to you.
3. And this is the important one. Take a deep breath.
It's a game. It's one game. It sucks to lose it and it's easy to overreact.
So don't. Calm down. Understand that games get blown, closers give up runs, and sometimes wins become losses.
I can assure you, this isn't the only time this has ever happened, nor will it be the last.
And I can assure you, you replace Jonathan Broxton with any other closer in the league and the previous statement isn't any less true.
Because the "perfect" closer you are looking for pitches for the J-City Demons and I've got no reason to send him your way.
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